MLB Free Pick - Houston vs Colorado

Colorado dropped the first game of the Mexico City Series to the Houston Astros, 12-4, on Saturday to continue its rough start to the season. The Rockies will try to earn a split of the international series when Austin Gomber (0-1, 4.32 ERA) faces Houston's Framber Valdez (0-0, 2.19). Gomber, who has yet to get a win in any of his five starts has faced the Astros twice in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Valdez has pitched well in his seven career games -- six starts -- against Colorado, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA. Houston hopes Valdez can pitch well enough to sweep the Mexico City Series and start to turn around the season. The Astros had lost five straight and eight of nine before winning Saturday and are in last place in the American League West, an unusual position for a team that has advanced to seven consecutive AL Championship Series.

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Rating: 2 Units

The Red Sox have won four of their last seven games. They have hit the ball well against left-handers and Wicks has struggled on the mound for the Cubs, giving up eight runs in his last three starts. He gave up 11 runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Red Sox in this game. The Cubs will struggle offensively in this game because Houck has done a good job on the mound for the Red Sox, giving up only nine runs in five starts. He gave up one run in two career starts against the Cubs and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Boston to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Taijuan Walker's first start of the season comes at the right time, as the Phillies are red-hot. The offense is consistently scoring 5+ runs, so he'll have run support. This bullpen is top 10 in FIP and WAR, so they can shut the door behind him. This is why Walker's initial outing of 2024 will be a multi-run win. Michael King has been walking batters at one of the league's highest clips all season, which is why two of his past three opponents have scored more than five runs against him. San Diego's bullpen is mediocre. Roll with the Phillies to win.

Rating: 2 Units

I will take the Bombers running up against a rookie righty in the series finale. Yankees starter Stroman has a good track record against the Brewers and has been effective in his brief tenure with the Yankees thus far. The Yankees have been road warriors thus far with Friday's loss just their fifth on the road this season. The veteran middle of the order, particularly Soto and Judge, should get good swings against Myers on Sunday and help power the Yankees to victory. The two teams are nearly even in the bullpen, each ranked in the top five in bullpen ERA. Runs will be tough to come by in the final few innings so I'm leaning on the Yankees with the edge of Stroman facing the rookie righty.

Rating: 2 Units

The Canucks, if they’re going to survive this series without Demko, have two strategies to choose from going forward. They can either be aggressive on the offensive end of the ice and hope that they can beat Saros enough to make up for any potential miscues on the defensive end. We saw that fail to work out in Game 2 as they fell behind early and never caught up in the loss. The alternative was what we saw in Game 3, where the Canucks were outshot badly but took advantage of a pair of power play goals to earn a low-scoring victory. DeSmith was solid in Game 3 but it’s tough to rely on him turning in that kind of performance on a night in, night out basis. With that in mind, you have to lean toward the Predators, feeding off the home crowd, to capitalize on a couple of miscues to even this series up heading back west.

Rating: 2 Units

The likely loss of Robinson to an ankle injury is massive for the Knicks. Robinson was a menace on the glass in games one and two and gave the Knicks a legitimate option to harass Embiid when Hartenstein left the floor. With Robinson missing the entire second half, the Knicks' advantage on the glass disappeared. Game three was the first game of the series the Sixers won the rebounding battle, 36-32. Brunson broke out for 39 points but the Knicks bench had its worst game in game three as the Sixers seemed to focus in on the likes of Brogdanovic and McBride. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey continue to look for support and may have found some in Oubre in game three with his 15 points. The Sixers have a great opportunity to knot the series at two games apiece today and will do so with the Knicks bench taking a major hit without Robinson.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves have won four of their last five games and five of their last seven road games. They are playing very well offensively, scoring 117 points per game while making over 48 percent of their shots in the playoffs. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making 88 percent of their free throws. Their rebounding has been very good and they grabbed more than 12 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. The Suns aren’t very good defensively and they haven’t played well in this series, giving up 120 points or more in two of their three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Timberwolves in this game. The Suns have lost three straight games and three straight home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and averaged less than 100 points per game in their first three games. Their ball movement hasn’t been good and their rebounding has fallen off as well, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Timberwolves, who average more than eight steals per game. The Timberwolves were one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season and they’ve played better in the playoffs, holding Phoenix to 99 points per game, so expect them to keep their offense in check.